This man called the result of the last three UK general elections months before they were held.
He called the Trump victory in 2016, long before anyone else thought there was even a slim chance of him beating Hilary.
Asked in front of several hundred people in June 2020 who would win the most recent US election – he replied, “That’s a tough one, but if Biden appoints a black, female running mate then he’ll win.”
But it’s not his political foresight that I wish to draw your attention to, but his economic forecasts which have been even more remarkable.
Roger Martin-Fagg is a behavioural economist. He’s worked with the Bank of England, three major clearing banks and the New Zealand treasury, in addition to many world-renowned business schools and centres of academic excellence. Recently, actually make that for the last two decades or so, his forecasts for the economy have been markedly different to these august bodies – and he’s been broadly right whereas they’ve been precisely wrong.
Roger has forecast the last three recessions, on each occasion receiving an incredulous response as he made his predictions whilst the economy appeared robust. He’s called house price increases to within 1-1.5% accurately for the last five years. He predicts the changes in retail spending and other key metrics long before the actual results are announced.
When asked “How does he do it?” he replies, (in a very modest, understated way), “Oh, it’s quite easy you know, I just observe people’s behaviour.” Roger suggests that most economic forecasts are based on rational responses, whereas people are more often than not far from rational. Since lockdown one Roger has forecast a post-covid boom, and whilst this is now a common view, let me remind you that in March 2020 it was a far cry from what the media, government, professional and amateur commentators were predicting.
Roger is a Trusted Advisor to Property Academy and delivers a comprehensive global economic summary along with a macroeconomic forecast for the UK plus a microeconomic forecast for the property sector each quarter, exclusively for our members. The day after this year’s budget he gave us an exclusive paper which included the following extract:
“By the end of this month the total stimulus is £355Bn, by the end of this time next year it will be£234Bn. In total this is three months GDP. So imagine your business getting three months revenue out of the blue.
It is a massive stimulus. And cries that it is not enough just indicates the high level of economic illiteracy.
The eight free ports are another good move, and note only one is in the SE. To shift high paying civil servants to Darlington will do two things. One it will inject local spending power but more importantly the quality of life will improve for those who move. Teesside and its surrounding countryside is in my opinion a much nicer place to live than greater London. In ten years Redcar will be transformed!
The 95% mortgage guarantee is good old Tory home owning stuff. Sunak has guaranteed they win the next election as house prices this year will now rise by 10% and continue to rise over the next 3 years. The new Tory voters in the North are already seeing 10% uplift.
The infrastructure bank in Leeds with £12 Bn of Tier 1 capital will be able to create a maximum of £300Bn of new money. A welcome move.
I am convinced we will see an inflationary boom beginning May/June. In three years time all the scribblers will be whingeing about labour shortages, inflation and the need to reduce demand. But the deficit will be falling rapidly as tax receipts soar.”
Roger was a beacon of light in the darkest days of the pandemic. That’s not because he’s naturally optimistic, indeed he errs on the cautious side; when his predictions are wrong it’s because results have exceeded his forecast.
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Paul & Charlie
